[Arm-netbook] 110 preorders for alpha-level boards

[Dr. David Alan Gilbert]

* lkcl luke (luke.leighton at gmail.com) wrote:
> just thought that people might like to know that we crossed the 110
> mark for alpha-level preorders a few days ago.  this is assuming a few
> things:
> 
> a) that there are NREs of $2,000
> b) that the cost of the components per board are around $30
> c) that everyone provided valid contact details
> d) that everyone who submitted preorders still wants one
> 
> i've moved a number of the preorders that didn't have email addresses
> or any kind of contact method to the not_valid folder already.
> 
> anyway: assuming that those conditions are still valid, the number of
> people prepared to pay up to $48.18 is 110.  the order_processing.py
> program http://rhombus-tech.net/allwinner_a10/order_processing.py has
> an algorithm that starts off at $0.001, works out how many people
> accept that price, then from that quantity of people works out a cost
> (dividing the NREs across that number), then works out how many people
> would accept _that_ price, repeat until twice round the loop gives the
> same number of people.
> 
> a few weeks ago it was about 45 people and around $80, but there seems
> to have been some magic figure ($50 or so) which dropped in an extra
> 50 people.

I guess the $50 is a nominal amount that many of us have probably picked;
in reality if you came back and said it's working out at $52.12 then
probably most of the people would be just as happy; of course that's
pretty difficult to model.

<snip>

> bottom line: there is NO pricing estimates... YET.  the above exercise
> is thus theoretical until we have hard numbers.

Do you have a guess on when alpha boards might land?
(This isn't a 'get on with it' it's more of a 'will they land
by the next time I've got a week booked off...)

> funfunfun.

Indeed.

Dave
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