[Arm-netbook] preorder and roadmap clarification

[Andrew M. A. Cater]

On Wed, Dec 21, 2011 at 10:36:20PM +0000, lkcl luke wrote:
> hi folks,
> 
> just had a question off-list about how the various stages will work,
> so i thought i'd best clarify.
> 
> * the NREs (non-recurring expenses) are $2000 per "board development
> change".  ok with each successive set, costs can be reduced a bit:
> e.g. if all the holes are in the same place on the PCB, and the board
> has the same connectors, and it's the same size, you save $500 for not
> having to redo the PCB "tooling".  basically, though, it's $2000.  at
> this stage, there will be *no* software: you'll get a board, and
> that's it.  we will all need to pitch in, munge the lichee v2.6.36
> code and get on with it.  (i also have a copy of the u-boot GPL source
> code which i will also make available closer to the time).
> 
> * assuming that the factory gets things right first time (it could
> happen: this is a cut/paste jobbie from the existing Reference Design
> after all) and the alpha boards are all ok, we can go straight into
> beta with *no* NREs.  that means that the 2nd run would have more
> people, but still no OS images etc.  orders for 5 to 50 units are
> kinda ok at this point *if* you are a software developer and are
> basically happy to get involved doing u-boot, debian-installer, ubuntu
> images etc. etc.
> 
> * "stable" means, approximately, "kernel's done, u-boot's done,
> debian-installer's done, openembedded recipes are done: download,
> boot, go".  this is the point at which orders for 1k, 10k and above
> would be fine.
> 
> now, as the NREs will need to be covered on the alpha stage, it means
> that the first few people, of whom there are about 30, will have to be
> paying about $100 per board.  i am reluctant to even let 30 people
> take that risk: i'd far rather it was 5.  i will see what we can do
> with the factory, see if there is any way to do a "pre-alpha" phase -
> but i will only raise this with them once they are actually underway.
> 
> the second phase - beta - those NREs are _gone_.  so, at this point,
> the more people who pitch in at the beta phase, it's basically a PCB
> cost + component cost (zero PCB NREs).  at this phase, if there are
> 100 units in one batch, then let's take some guesses... 100of CPU
> pricing would be ooo... *guessing*... $15.  so let's imagine that the
> BOM would be $40.  if there are 1,000 units in one batch, then the
> pricing would be *guessing again* $30.  at 10,000 units, it would be
> $20.  at 100,000 units, it would be close to that magic $15 figure.
> 
> so far, if the price was $30, we have 48 people who have said that
> they would be willing to pay that cost (at beta only - my
> order_processing.py isn't yet sophisticated enough to take into
> account if they weren't able to buy at "alpha" stage).  at $25, we
> have 53 people.  ok, table:
> beta 40 people @ $40
> beta 48 people @ $30
> beta 53 people @ $25
> beta 56 people @ $20
> 
> for "stable", we have:
> stable 41 people @ $30
> stable 61 people @ $20
> stable 121 people @ $18
> 
> so you can see, these would not be anywhere near the levels of 10,000
> or 100,000 pricing - we _do_ however have a couple of people who have
> said they'd be willing to do 1k stable orders, which is something that
> everyone else could ride on the back of, if nothing else.
> 
> but as far as 10k and 100k pricing is concerned, that's where i need
> to let _you_ guys handle the software, getting things working on the
> alpha and beta CPU boards, and i focus on the next phase, which is
> getting ready-made production-quality samples into the hands of
> mass-volume clients.
> 
> this is all very inter-dependent stuff! :)  and i'm just really proud
> of everyone who's helped get things this far - the perorders,
> double-checking the linux kernel stuff.
> 
> l.
> 
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Count me in for a stable board - or even possibly a beta.

Andy Cater

amacater at galactic.demon.co.uk / amacater at debian.org